Since the start of the season I have been working on some rating systems for the Championship, Thanks go to Gavin Horsfall @ghorsfall on twitter for his giving me some insight into his rating system for the lower leagues which i have taken on board for the Championship.
At the start of the season each team gets a rating of 1-4 determined by how I believe each team will perform during the current season.
Top rated teams (1) are Blackburn, Birmingham, Blackpool, Bolton, Leicester and Wolves, these are all teams expected to challange for automatic promotion.
Teams rated (2) Brighton, Burnley, Cardiff, Hull, Leeds, Middlesboro and Nottm F, these teams are expected to challange for a play off place.
Teams rated (3) Charlton, Derby, Huddersfield, Ipswich, Sheff W and Watford, these are teams expected to be lower to mid-table but not fighting a relegation battle.
Teams rated (4) Barnsley, Bristol C, Crystal P , Millwall and Peterboro', teams rated 4 are expected to be in a relegation battle.
With these ratings we can look to see if any patterns emerge over the course of the season when teams with different ratings play each other.
Still fairly early in the season but some interesting trends are starting to appear.
Derby v Blackburn: Derby against 1 rated teams this season have lost 1 and drawn 1, they have also drawn their last 2 games and drawn 4 from 10 this season play against a Blackburn side who have drawn 2 from 2 versus 3 rated teams of which both games finished 1-1 and have drawn 2 of their last 3 games and 4 from 5 away from home.
Looking at the stats the draw looks to be a good runner at best price 3.55
Bolton v Bristol C: Bolton have lost 2 from 2 against 4 rated teams both defeats have been in their last 3 games, although opponents Bristol city don't fair any better against a 1 rated team losing 2 from 2.
Whilst it's difficult to pick a winner goals could be on he cards, Bolton have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 from 2 against 4 rated but more impressively 7 from 10 games have been over 2.5 with another 2 games seeing 2 goals.
Brfistol City again have a 50% overs record against 1 rated opponents but have seen 6 from 10 and 4 of their last 6 games seeing 3 or more goals, the 2 games in the run of 6 both had 2 goals.
Over 2.5 goals can be backed at a current betfair price of 1.74.
Sheff W v Leeds: Sheffield Wednesday have lost 2 from 3 against teams with a rating of 2, their last 2 games have both been against rated 2 teams 1 draw and 1 defeat.
Leeds are yet to play a team with a rating of 3.
Again goals look likely Sheefield w have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their 10 games and over 3.5 goals in 5 of 10. Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 and over 3.5 goals in 4 of 10.
Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.76 and over 3.5 priced at 2.82
A few little snipets.
Birmingham have won their only game against a 1 rated team and they are up against a Leicester side who have lost 2 from 3 against 1 rated teams
Burnley have won 1 and lost 1 against 1 rated teams and Blackpool have won 3 and lost 1 against 2 rated teams.
As I mentioned earlier in the piece it's still early in the season and very much work in progress, it will be interesting to
see how these go.
Any comments or constructive criticism on the ratings system are appreciated.
At the start of the season each team gets a rating of 1-4 determined by how I believe each team will perform during the current season.
Top rated teams (1) are Blackburn, Birmingham, Blackpool, Bolton, Leicester and Wolves, these are all teams expected to challange for automatic promotion.
Teams rated (2) Brighton, Burnley, Cardiff, Hull, Leeds, Middlesboro and Nottm F, these teams are expected to challange for a play off place.
Teams rated (3) Charlton, Derby, Huddersfield, Ipswich, Sheff W and Watford, these are teams expected to be lower to mid-table but not fighting a relegation battle.
Teams rated (4) Barnsley, Bristol C, Crystal P , Millwall and Peterboro', teams rated 4 are expected to be in a relegation battle.
With these ratings we can look to see if any patterns emerge over the course of the season when teams with different ratings play each other.
Still fairly early in the season but some interesting trends are starting to appear.
Derby v Blackburn: Derby against 1 rated teams this season have lost 1 and drawn 1, they have also drawn their last 2 games and drawn 4 from 10 this season play against a Blackburn side who have drawn 2 from 2 versus 3 rated teams of which both games finished 1-1 and have drawn 2 of their last 3 games and 4 from 5 away from home.
Looking at the stats the draw looks to be a good runner at best price 3.55
Bolton v Bristol C: Bolton have lost 2 from 2 against 4 rated teams both defeats have been in their last 3 games, although opponents Bristol city don't fair any better against a 1 rated team losing 2 from 2.
Whilst it's difficult to pick a winner goals could be on he cards, Bolton have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 from 2 against 4 rated but more impressively 7 from 10 games have been over 2.5 with another 2 games seeing 2 goals.
Brfistol City again have a 50% overs record against 1 rated opponents but have seen 6 from 10 and 4 of their last 6 games seeing 3 or more goals, the 2 games in the run of 6 both had 2 goals.
Over 2.5 goals can be backed at a current betfair price of 1.74.
Sheff W v Leeds: Sheffield Wednesday have lost 2 from 3 against teams with a rating of 2, their last 2 games have both been against rated 2 teams 1 draw and 1 defeat.
Leeds are yet to play a team with a rating of 3.
Again goals look likely Sheefield w have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their 10 games and over 3.5 goals in 5 of 10. Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10 and over 3.5 goals in 4 of 10.
Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.76 and over 3.5 priced at 2.82
A few little snipets.
Birmingham have won their only game against a 1 rated team and they are up against a Leicester side who have lost 2 from 3 against 1 rated teams
Burnley have won 1 and lost 1 against 1 rated teams and Blackpool have won 3 and lost 1 against 2 rated teams.
As I mentioned earlier in the piece it's still early in the season and very much work in progress, it will be interesting to
see how these go.
Any comments or constructive criticism on the ratings system are appreciated.